The whole and its parts

The whole & its parts

Risk and Luck

Asked if he would hire Elon Musk, the late Charlie Munger once said “I haven’t the faintest idea how Elon Musk will turn out, but he has a considerable chance of success and considerable chance of failure. He seems to like it that way.”

And it is an interesting aspect about Elon Musk, that he doesn’t seem to fear risk nor seems to base his projects on hope for luck.

For any upcoming endeavor risk and luck come alongside. And looking closely, luck is just another form of risk and vice versa. Both are there and can make the plan happen or break the plan.

But when the plan succeeds people tend to celebrate it as their success.

And when the plan fails, people tend to blame the risks that have not been seen beforehand.

It is either inflating their success or diminishing their contribution. In both cases, it is forgetting the impact of risk and luck on the work that is being done.

It is based on the desire to feel in control when things aren’t.


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